MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791fb1538211a8f71708849031e85b96da29ec23cdecbeade6c9fbc40e4e0456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 1c | 6,538$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb9…4009backed Over | 66c | 594.96$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 6c | 558$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 458.21$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 74c | 405.39$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 295$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Under | 34c | 245.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 230.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 77c | 204.6$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 33c | 199.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 68c | 186.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…5a65backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 154.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732c…08dbbacked Over | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 68c | 122.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 117.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 56c | 74.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 34c | 69.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 32c | 68.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 60c | 50.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 37c | 35.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Over | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x212e…791abacked Over | 48c | 24.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…64c4backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 67c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.