MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3782ec7f88b3583ee5ad65198657a7c34692fe661d6178193392333f1a76d3a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 4,939$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 4,612$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.73 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 4,019$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.75 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 3,644$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.37 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 77c | 3,417$2,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 2,265$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.65 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 1,653$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 904.58$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.92 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 2c | 812.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…49debacked Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 566.66$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.33 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 539.97$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.19 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 498.72$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.48 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 286.1$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.44 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 254.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 95.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 55.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Kansas City Royals | 78c | 49.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 45.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 34.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Kansas City Royals | 77c | 34.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 69c | 27.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Kansas City Royals | 77c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals | 77c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.