Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x796d20aa723be5b681e44e5df86bec28131ad81d44420043a74bad066f2ff61b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 781.91$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.95 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 553.2$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 36c | 402.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.44 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 34c | 253.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 68c | 204.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 201.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 180.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 40c | 149.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 147$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 71c | 140.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 140.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 46c | 131.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 65c | 118.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 118$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 32c | 100.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 17c | 97.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 96.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 60c | 92.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 92.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 83.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…6d28backed Yes | 24c | 76.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 66.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 64c | 64.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 57.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 68c | 57.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 56.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 56.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 52.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 52.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 43.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 39c | 38.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 65c | 37.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 36c | 37.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 32.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 29.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 71c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…d60fbacked Yes | 56c | 28.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d5c6backed No | 63c | 26.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 25.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 47c | 24.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked No | 66c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 49c | 21.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…e08cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2380…b7f7backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.