Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a90e872a4e961609dcc1f6de987a51f2324e8e28f6f4129236c3c3d86d47d71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 61c | 861.5$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.57 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 37c | 424.95$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.51 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 328.6$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed No | 60c | 306.12$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.56 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 26c | 240.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 238.48$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 53c | 222$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 51c | 216.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 165.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 147$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 140.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 113.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 80c | 112.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 34c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 88.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 82.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 42c | 81.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 58c | 78.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 58c | 74.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 41c | 73.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 73.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 45c | 64.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 40c | 57.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 56.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 52.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 38c | 51.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 51c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 47.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 73c | 46.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 45.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 73c | 42.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 40c | 41.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 35c | 35.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 34.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 34.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 71c | 33.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 33.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2380…b7f7backed No | 74c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 23.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 20.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 16.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.