South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Vitória vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x797a446df20f81a913784c688448dca8e3993b9163ff5e9bcc0d06e85fb5b576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 30c | 3,278$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.78 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 3,069$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.47 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…d926backed No | 70c | 1,596$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 1,536$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.54 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,466$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.59 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8d…6f02backed Yes | 8c | 1,265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 1,046$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.72 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 849.2$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.22 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 72c | 816.91$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.82 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31cb…a34bbacked No | 71c | 699.4$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.83 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 80c | 539.43$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 29c | 462.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.27 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…d8abbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e64…9cb7backed No | 72c | 239.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 23c | 179.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 23c | 173.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 73c | 163.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 30c | 160.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 19c | 154$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 25c | 144$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 65c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…e43dbacked Yes | 31c | 115.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 112.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7d54backed Yes | 29c | 106.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 69c | 99.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed No | 72c | 88.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…7948backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 73.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 31c | 63.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Yes | 30c | 55.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 31c | 54.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 68c | 52.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4aa…5169backed Yes | 30c | 44.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 70c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 69c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Vitória vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?this page
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-07-29?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-07-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.