MLB · resolved market
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79af8966439543bfa2630f624e459e4faf0aa2a8807c64d08b30f529944ff485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metsof Mets, Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Mets | 49c | 20,550$10,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,480.5 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 13,422$6,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,845.38 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks | 28c | 13,060$3,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,648.83 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Mets | 64c | 9,036$5,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Diamondbacks | 29c | 6,474$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.46 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mets | 79c | 5,911$4,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.25 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 5,555$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.05 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks | 36c | 2,093$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks | 36c | 1,801$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.81 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Mets | 47c | 1,038$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.88 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Mets | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 763.53$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.04 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 739.24$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.01 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Diamondbacks | 3c | 650$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Mets | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 614.86$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.43 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Mets | 49c | 606.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.12 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Mets | 49c | 507.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 433.86$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.27 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 383.44$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Diamondbacks | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Diamondbacks | 52c | 194.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f8a6backed Mets | 36c | 155.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Diamondbacks | 8c | 142$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mets | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mets | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Mets | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Mets | 47c | 97.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 96.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Diamondbacks | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Mets | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mets | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Diamondbacks | 52c | 49.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mets | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Diamondbacks | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Diamondbacks | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…ac06backed Mets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Mets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Mets | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Mets | 49c | 26.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Mets | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Mets | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 22.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.