Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79bfc0fbb98672d9b116f2aa9a695afe52466fdbe48f15f2c8d28f74baaddc7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 0c | 9,724$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 55c | 374.45$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.37 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 50c | 282.88$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.56 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 35c | 268.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 216.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 202.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 167.46$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 49c | 144.66$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 113.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 108.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 47c | 101.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 57c | 95.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 85.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 59c | 81.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked No | 57c | 79.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 39c | 71.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 54c | 71.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 53c | 66.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 42c | 61.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 51c | 56.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed Yes | 36c | 55.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 67c | 53.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 50.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 50.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 49.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 76c | 48.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 48.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 43.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 31c | 43.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 45c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 31c | 41.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 37.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 61c | 36.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 36.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 35.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…f376backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 51c | 29.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 72c | 27.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 53c | 27.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3649…2a49backed Yes | 58c | 27.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 62c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 63c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 64c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.