Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x226a6ed995f9fb203a02c8ccc0db63f99c736c6323a851c7b46da02ffd7835f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 0c | 9,714$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 622.74$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 80c | 265.05$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 215.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 185.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 184.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 36c | 177.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 149.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 142.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 73c | 132.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…9c24backed Yes | 33c | 120.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 40c | 112.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 36c | 104.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 101.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 98.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 97.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 24c | 94.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 33c | 85.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 65c | 84.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 40c | 77.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 19c | 73.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 40c | 72.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 64c | 71.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 63c | 71.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 70c | 64.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 59.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 32c | 57.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 32c | 56.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 75c | 54.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 58c | 50.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 36c | 49.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 48.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2680…a387backed Yes | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 58c | 45.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 59c | 44.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 37c | 44.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 61c | 43.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 46c | 42.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 39.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 38.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 63c | 37.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 64c | 35.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 35c | 32.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 40c | 31.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…c694backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…24aabacked Yes | 38c | 27.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed No | 77c | 22.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 22.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 67c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 63c | 20.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…b738backed No | 57c | 17.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 16.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.