Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ebf09d0d122f7d0b0819bc9bedbf5c4685fa03192b633e657341c56964c267b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 974.36$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 3c | 746.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 19c | 428.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 411.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 308.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 265.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 15c | 226.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.58 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 219.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.18 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 72c | 201.72$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 189.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked No | 11c | 158.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 35c | 140.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.16 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 23c | 122.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 48c | 120.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 16c | 119.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 109.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 98.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 98.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 18c | 98.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 77c | 92.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 13c | 87.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 44c | 74.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 63.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 66c | 62.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 50.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 49.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 63c | 43.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 53c | 29.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…8c52backed Yes | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 57c | 25.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 23.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 69c | 19.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 63c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 78c | 16.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.