Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State Bobcats vs. Montana Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79dbcfa88e91a1ea71c9dafaf84ea55632ff4ef328c6963ec01b69dbdad3086e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana State Bobcatsof Montana State Bobcats, Montana Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana Grizzlies | 9c | 7,614$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.23 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 2,685$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.33 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Montana State Bobcats | 48c | 2,498$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.66 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b3b5backed Montana Grizzlies | 56c | 1,785$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Montana Grizzlies | 4c | 1,317$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Montana State Bobcats | 43c | 1,196$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.56 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Montana Grizzlies | 51c | 1,039$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.84 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Montana Grizzlies | 14c | 826.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 690$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.4 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 678.02$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.88 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Montana State Bobcats | 63c | 645.71$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.74 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 621.51$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.21 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Montana Grizzlies | 20c | 584.06$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30b…1b6dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Montana Grizzlies | 30c | 473.33$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 444.94$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.17 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Montana Grizzlies | 22c | 436.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Montana Grizzlies | 56c | 422$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.39 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Montana Grizzlies | 56c | 390.7$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.37 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b7…d2d3backed Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 349.39$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…b53bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 346.54$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e4…9546backed Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 340.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…dfedbacked Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 328.49$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Montana Grizzlies | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 221.07$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Montana Grizzlies | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Montana Grizzlies | 55c | 186.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Montana Grizzlies | 59c | 166$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 252 | 46.4%117 W · 135 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Montana Grizzlies | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Montana Grizzlies | 45c | 149.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Montana Grizzlies | 55c | 146.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 112.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…79a3backed Montana Grizzlies | 10c | 111.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…7824backed Montana State Bobcats | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Montana Grizzlies | 56c | 89.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…e488backed Montana Grizzlies | 56c | 89.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Montana Grizzlies | 40c | 88.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 45c | 86.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Montana Grizzlies | 55c | 78.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Montana Grizzlies | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…940fbacked Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Montana Grizzlies | 38c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…3851backed Montana Grizzlies | 56c | 67.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Montana Grizzlies | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 59.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 46c | 56.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 53.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Montana State Bobcats | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…b015backed Montana Grizzlies | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Montana Grizzlies | 55c | 42.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 54c | 42.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 41.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Montana State Bobcats | 69c | 37.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Montana Grizzlies | 29c | 35.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…2ea8backed Montana Grizzlies | 49c | 34.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Montana State Bobcats | 45c | 34.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…743dbacked Montana Grizzlies | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3948…f81bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Montana Grizzlies | 39c | 28.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…c09abacked Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…a3eabacked Montana State Bobcats | 75c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Montana Grizzlies | 54c | 23.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 120 | 34.2%41 W · 79 L | -13.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…d7dfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafa…3471backed Montana State Bobcats | 46c | 21.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Montana Grizzlies | 68c | 20.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…be18backed Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Montana State Bobcats | 79c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Montana Grizzliesthis page
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 144.5Over won
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 145.5Over won
- Spread: Montana Grizzlies (-1.5)Montana State Bobcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.