TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c5,213$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0247136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c785.13$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No72c622.99$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.931,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes42c474.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6210133.7%34 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes30c307.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7810058%58 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes28c287.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No72c214.6$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.051,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No67c208.17$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4453925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c207.33$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.221,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes7c199.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No60c189.6$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.115,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed Yes35c188.17$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6612625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes31c172.3$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No69c162.86$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.294,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes31c158.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9526442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29cd…f4c7backed Yes33c151.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.841,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c141.74$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.563,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No74c134.56$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.231,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c122.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.095,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No70c119.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7928368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No64c116.44$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9238560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No69c113$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.035024%12 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No68c111.35$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes17c110.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4396015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes33c108$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3118641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes44c95.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4215940.3%64 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes37c94.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3516320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c85.59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c78.28$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.94,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes34c77.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6911650%58 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes29c76.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.561629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes34c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.86619.7%13 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c69.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.284,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c67.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.533,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No76c66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.944564.4%29 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes28c61.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0842555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c58.89$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.484,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes27c57.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5775546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c55.64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.779,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No54c54.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2713254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes29c51.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.024,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No68c51.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4772042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.637942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes34c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9647738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No45c42.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.318368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x25aa…0033backed Yes36c41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No43c40.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes42c40.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.899146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes32c35.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.536243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed Yes62c34.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4110554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes31c32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0766758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.22,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c0…056cbacked No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No73c29.23$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.891553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db5…ef2fbacked No73c28.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.812759.3%16 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…154ebacked No59c28.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.675354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes43c27.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.355,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3df…463dbacked No71c24.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.979456.4%53 W · 41 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f1c…dbcebacked No68c22.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.23560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45fe…f122backed No68c20.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.59650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d4d…73eebacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44967.3%33 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7540862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d62…144dbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.366026.7%16 W · 44 L-19.6wins-0.33per pick59cpaid-61%equal weight24-0.23 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No65c19.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.943,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No72c19.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.424351.2%22 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No54c19.07$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.852,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No59c18.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.622166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c15.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.334,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.815722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5c…c6f3backed No70c14.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.292556%14 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No73c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7818567.6%125 W · 60 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.