Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a0ce0a83af3f424a91c882228d1866f1d0261dae77c94f5278bf2461bc79c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 5,213$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 785.13$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 622.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.93 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 42c | 474.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.62 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 30c | 307.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 287.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 214.6$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 67c | 208.17$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 207.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 189.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 35c | 188.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 172.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 162.86$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 31c | 158.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed Yes | 33c | 151.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 141.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 134.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 122.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 119.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 64c | 116.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 69c | 113$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 111.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 110.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 33c | 108$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 44c | 95.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 37c | 94.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 85.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 78.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 34c | 77.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 76.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 69.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 67.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 28c | 61.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 58.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 27c | 57.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 55.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 54c | 54.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 51.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 45c | 42.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x25aa…0033backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 40.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 42c | 40.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 32c | 35.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 62c | 34.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…056cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 73c | 29.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 73c | 28.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked No | 59c | 28.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 27.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 71c | 24.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…dbcebacked No | 68c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…f122backed No | 68c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 72c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 19.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 59c | 18.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.