Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa64093302794e38fe593009dec5bb2cd27f3b9628eb270dfffa0a9976ce6c187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 4,528$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 53c | 896.73$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.13 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…6298backed Yes | 79c | 527.17$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 52c | 254.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 40c | 248.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 241.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 223.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 44c | 213.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 212.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 10c | 195.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 49c | 141.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 124.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 117$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 109.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 44c | 101.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 96.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 92.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 57c | 86.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 47c | 84.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 62c | 80.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 80.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 78.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 37c | 71.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 52c | 70.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 67.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 63.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 58.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…0018backed No | 51c | 53.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 43c | 50.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 55c | 50.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 63c | 48.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 48.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…07f8backed Yes | 62c | 44.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 40.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 52c | 37.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…bb66backed No | 40c | 35.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 35.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed No | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 37c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed No | 39c | 30.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…b7d7backed Yes | 64c | 27.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 39c | 26.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 49c | 24.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 62c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…467cbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.