MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a39b21f7de55fcbd89113cf15b81013ccf4cabf2c741d146c5743bdb210fe14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,233$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.24 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 1,211$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 1,011$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.83 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Over | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.12 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked Over | 65c | 769.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.31 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 754.39$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.96 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 54c | 715.08$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.39 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 608.42$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 607.47$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 530.71$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d601backed Over | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 476.19$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 451$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 424.25$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 420$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 46c | 259.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 230.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 42c | 204.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 190.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 186.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 178.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 169.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 165.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 22c | 164.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 40c | 122.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 122.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed Over | 56c | 112.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 68c | 95.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 53c | 94.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 90.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 38c | 77.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 36c | 75.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 63.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 55c | 60.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Under | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 39.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 55c | 31.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 30.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Over | 55c | 23.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.