MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f4f757071e871b4b09f12c2adc34a84ebf5686f3887bec272fb3186341cc212

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $342,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $341,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $342,205 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Under	53c	279,578$146,858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146,857.97	436	47%205 W · 231 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Over	47c	100,000$47,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53,000	358	54.5%195 W · 163 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Over	48c	61,800$29,664 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32,136	274	52.6%144 W · 130 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	48c	25,720$12,339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,381.01	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	48c	22,960$11,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,952.35	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Over	48c	22,071$10,594 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,477.12	291	47.1%137 W · 154 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under	52c	21,725$11,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,297	865	48.7%421 W · 444 L	-8.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over	47c	21,568$10,137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,431.08	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	47c	16,000$7,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,480	1,151	49.2%566 W · 585 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	48c	15,000$7,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,800	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Over	48c	10,000$4,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,200	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	40c	8,223$3,319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,904.22	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda48…5926backed Under	60c	8,000$4,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,799.95	123	39%48 W · 75 L	-9.7wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	48c	6,936$3,310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,626.02	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	47c	5,927$2,807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,119.97	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over	48c	5,001$2,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,600.52	1,909	53.5%1,021 W · 888 L	+29.1wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	51c	4,718$2,391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,391.24	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Under	54c	3,704$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	390	47.4%185 W · 205 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over	46c	2,271$1,045 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,226.18	550	53.1%292 W · 258 L	+20.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	48c	2,200$1,056 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,144	447	49.2%220 W · 227 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	62c	1,790$1,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,101.02	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	30c	1,314$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$922.49	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under	52c	981.98$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.45	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	46c	769.99$356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.24	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over	48c	745$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.56	1,521	48.6%739 W · 782 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over	48c	717.22$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.17	877	50.4%442 W · 435 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	50c	591.13$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.63	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	48c	450$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	48c	419.98$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.81	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Under	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	483	54.7%264 W · 219 L	+20.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Under	52c	383.98$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.67	116	62.9%73 W · 43 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over	50c	377$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.5	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	53c	310.28$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.39	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	494	50%247 W · 247 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	38c	270.07$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.77	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under	47c	264$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.02	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	47c	215.08$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.03	2,290	51%1,167 W · 1,123 L	+23.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over	47c	215$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.95	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over	48c	210$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.2	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over	48c	160$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.2	1,062	49.2%523 W · 539 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Over	48c	149.98$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.99	300	48%144 W · 156 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dec…c92dbacked Under	53c	141.51$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	104	59.6%62 W · 42 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	35c	136.07$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.59	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over	41c	124.02$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.17	1,725	50.1%864 W · 861 L	-4.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Under	52c	110.27$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.48	1,042	49.4%515 W · 527 L	+13.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under	46c	109.02$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.45	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21a6…7442backed Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.4wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	243	50.2%122 W · 121 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	91	41.8%38 W · 53 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	619	48.6%301 W · 318 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbf…c53cbacked Over	47c	97.21$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…f631backed Under	53c	91.28$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over	44c	82.95$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.7	694	47.6%330 W · 364 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Over	48c	79$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.08	726	48.1%349 W · 377 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over	51c	76.71$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.78	3,457	51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L	+108.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Over	48c	52.23$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.95	443	45.6%202 W · 241 L	-10.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under	61c	52.09$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.54	4,169	50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b7…fd93backed Over	30c	50$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	82	41.5%34 W · 48 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87f8…7de3backed Over	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	381	42%160 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Over	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	179	53.1%95 W · 84 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over	45c	48.91$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.9	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over	33c	47.72$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.97	1,733	49%849 W · 884 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	45c	45.68$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.03	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…30febacked Under	48c	41.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf67d…2de1backed Under	47c	33.35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	74	44.6%33 W · 41 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over	48c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	1,172	49.1%575 W · 597 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over	55c	24.77$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	2,147	50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L	+27.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over	52c	24.35$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.69	73	45.2%33 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1968…8c66backed Over	52c	24.35$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.69	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc4cb…a917backed Over	49c	24.24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.36	207	51.2%106 W · 101 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under	45c	23.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	2,583	61.4%1,587 W · 996 L	+70.9wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over	48c	23.45$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.19	403	41.4%167 W · 236 L	-20.0wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3238…6471backed Over	49c	22.8$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.63	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b92…93afbacked Under	45c	22.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	420	41.9%176 W · 244 L	-11.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8b8…2350backed Under	48c	21.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under	50c	20.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	276	52.9%146 W · 130 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e20…5cf9backed Under	54c	18.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	150	48%72 W · 78 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under	75c	15.92$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event