La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3e289c982d4384f1b03dab62cbfafdf9181a193c6f7b6ac95552e2d7e95c8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,898 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 2c | 4,730$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 8c | 3,931$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.2 | 378 | 29.4%111 W · 267 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 4c | 3,257$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 28c | 1,850$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 1c | 1,574$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 608 | 32.4%197 W · 411 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 1c | 1,381$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 27c | 1,266$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.81 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,234$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 1,116$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.42 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 1,057$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.27 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes | 27c | 925.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…2421backed Yes | 8c | 814.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed No | 72c | 664.62$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.09 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…5da9backed Yes | 27c | 412.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Yes | 7c | 371.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +71%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…7a08backed Yes | 27c | 326.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…2d43backed Yes | 27c | 278.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 12c | 216.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 140 | 23.6%33 W · 107 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8abb…a7d5backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Yes | 28c | 189$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…b37abacked No | 74c | 157.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4383…3d32backed No | 74c | 152.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Yes | 12c | 147$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…89ccbacked No | 74c | 143.17$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 30c | 134.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc305…d80dbacked No | 74c | 132.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 27c | 129$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 73c | 126.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked No | 76c | 124$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 215 | 46%99 W · 116 L | -14.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf76…395cbacked No | 74c | 111.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb4…1eb1backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9974…c371backed Yes | 27c | 100.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…18ffbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…e128backed No | 74c | 98.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e41…46c4backed No | 74c | 95.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 93.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…33d1backed Yes | 27c | 85.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…8609backed No | 74c | 76.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Yes | 27c | 73.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 30c | 60.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…9a30backed Yes | 28c | 59.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 309 | 56%173 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 73c | 49.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05d…a000backed No | 74c | 49.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7326…1b30backed No | 74c | 45.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 73c | 42.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 185 | 64.9%120 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 285 | 58.2%166 W · 119 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 73c | 34.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…1cbebacked No | 74c | 31.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b92…74bdbacked No | 74c | 29.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6965…8b02backed No | 74c | 27.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9c…acb3backed No | 74c | 26.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 92 | 67.4%62 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…f373backed No | 74c | 23.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…a036backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 70cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-15?No won
- Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.