Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a466d6153f97aa72d12680d2e25c81fe5df71b09a7bd6e46a18f7eb7803f9af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FSV Mainz 05of VfB Stuttgart, 1. FSV Mainz 05
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,605 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 1,335$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.98 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 74c | 1,139$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.99 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed VfB Stuttgart | 13c | 501$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 73c | 345.19$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed VfB Stuttgart | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 200.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…a103backed VfB Stuttgart | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked VfB Stuttgart | 27c | 185.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed VfB Stuttgart | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…2c49backed VfB Stuttgart | 28c | 156.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed VfB Stuttgart | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked VfB Stuttgart | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked VfB Stuttgart | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3d…2a01backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 73c | 81.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…f49ebacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 73c | 75.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 73c | 71.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…da00backed VfB Stuttgart | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 74c | 48.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed VfB Stuttgart | 28c | 37.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 74c | 33.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…e55dbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.