Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8d32e88481f1c0a05a1fda194ba2692095409a5fb83a29ab5f322421d12d748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 5,131$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 12c | 2,585$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 80c | 1,915$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 22c | 1,250$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 1,062$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.82 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 80c | 745.15$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 10c | 500.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 5c | 418.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Over | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 78c | 249.77$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Over | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…8526backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde95…b97fbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.