TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,385 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c16,812$8,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,041.373,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over61c5,361$3,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.4775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86bb…54ebbacked Under38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under41c4,160$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.682015%3 W · 17 L-6.7wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.992450%12 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf425…be71backed Over48c2,840$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.232356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7d4…b415backed Over62c2,560$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over58c2,478$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.528955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f9…16fbbacked Under37c1,868$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over34c1,749$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.0910026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under38c1,592$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.1434144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db4…91e2backed Over62c1,555$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under49c1,350$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.5219139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over57c1,318$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.888068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under52c1,224$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.081,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under39c1,100$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42956547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over51c980.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.431631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over45c950$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.513461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under48c934.98$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.771,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf706…f685backed Over62c910.79$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.21353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61bb…5854backed Over57c900$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3871861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa302…de94backed Over62c888$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf131…69cabacked Over62c712.69$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x140d…a937backed Over44c678.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.161353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over62c624.99$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.522047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over62c532.34$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.3418759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over25c443$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.2511630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under38c438$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under38c427.29$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.371,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Over61c419.67$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6717652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over48c401.49$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7710642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15231145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4922…34a7backed Over21c399.94$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.953729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over51c394.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.726435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a4b…f7d2backed Under11c360$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.311811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8123…9041backed Over58c336.21$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over62c322.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.664975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Under37c322$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.141747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb16…d583backed Over61c303.87$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under37c289.85$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Over63c278.02$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.025044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under39c249.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under39c249.21$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0749647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over59c237.36$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3622157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over59c230$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.634655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd9…51d0backed Over44c228.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.42853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+53.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over68c225.42$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2633938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over63c224.55$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.311065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc94c…ba65backed Under14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+118.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.315547.3%26 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under38c183.53$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7615244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c4…48e3backed Under11c180$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.361216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under37c167$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7414254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c4…359ebacked Over42c161.43$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.984273.8%31 W · 11 L+12.1wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+73%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Over62c161.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3617855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.299067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Over63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.733265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d4…08d0backed Under40c140$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over54c140$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.037962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x05af…e9bfbacked Under40c136$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over62c129$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0210943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over56c123.21$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2118958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over61c122.69$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8518353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d8…3d22backed Under40c120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.66541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over59c118.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.645364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10cd…6362backed Under40c118$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Over43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.283551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over43c105.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.132356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under48c103.07$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.131,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Under52c102.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.387251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1edf…2392backed Over45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553240.6%13 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86c…564dbacked Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over56c97.8$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6511955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9112069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under53c86.18$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5422245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd162…72aabacked Over62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbbf…06d3backed Over62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.651478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+53.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over62c80.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6437344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e08…19cabacked Over62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.43571.4%25 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Over63c75.85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.26659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Over61c72.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.096861.8%42 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Under51c72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.722347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Over63c71.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.689658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under45c70.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7630647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.227332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc26c…ffddbacked Over60c67.73$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under38c63.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2462452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89bc…00a1backed Under39c60.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa488…91c3backed Under65c59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.251855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a55…06e3backed Over60c59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ba…960fbacked Over62c56.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.451471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under60c54.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1514642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over30c53.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3311744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9e…f53abacked Over53c50.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.941471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2938845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2123…099bbacked Over61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c16…c36fbacked Over40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.