Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61fe1271427aaedcdc5e023b86188ad5785863ba96499933dc236eef3b724847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,869 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Under | 60c | 9,999$5,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.92 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 39c | 3,267$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.25 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 2,741$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.41 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 32c | 1,397$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.67 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 60c | 1,355$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.4 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 25c | 998.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.62 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 39c | 645.36$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.77 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 40c | 502$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.2 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 13c | 461.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 60c | 432.63$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.6 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 43c | 425.14$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 62c | 312.11$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.35 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 40c | 311.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.79 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 59c | 249.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.04 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 60c | 249.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 39c | 216.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…7e3abacked Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 39c | 128.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 39c | 125.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 40c | 100.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 42c | 98.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 46c | 98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 61c | 87.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 24c | 82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 24c | 73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 36c | 71.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 37c | 70.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…e494backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 69.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 44c | 66.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 59c | 63.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 40c | 55.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 40c | 49.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 40c | 45.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 37c | 37.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Under | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 40c | 33.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2449…3799backed Under | 61c | 30.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…e5ccbacked Over | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…abfbbacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 40c | 27.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 40c | 27.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 61c | 18.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…01fdbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 77c | 13.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.