Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85e5d535344dd20440d3c0609fd40855d3fe9d550b242ddbb0329b5c179ae40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,295 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 5,488$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 16c | 3,595$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.67 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 77c | 1,950$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 16c | 598.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 76c | 526.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 11c | 399.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Over | 64c | 355.06$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 306.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 25c | 305.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 62c | 225.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 67c | 222.39$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28c4…48e3backed Under | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…f7d2backed Under | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Over | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 118.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 115.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 70c | 104.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 35c | 74.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 68c | 74.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 69c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 26c | 44.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 35c | 37.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e8…0273backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.