TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,182

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,182 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No40c6,353$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,567.223,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes58c918.97$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.9724132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes59c762.71$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.7138055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Yes58c500$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2121968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Yes68c460$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.26768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No41c415.17$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.7919139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.166448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28c4…48e3backed No14c360$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.851216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked No36c357.92$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.741,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes49c350$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.511142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x142e…f6e4backed Yes64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Yes47c299.92$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.965356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Yes67c299.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1117855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No17c298.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7310026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes64c265.63$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6317652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb593…a889backed Yes63c255.56$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No39c215.07$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0781732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc94c…ba65backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+118.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac1…3afebacked Yes55c199.9$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.91241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4b…f7d2backed No16c180$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes64c179.55$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.644161%25 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes67c179.41$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.416665.2%43 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No37c175.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0776234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x782e…b317backed Yes57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.443253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d10…b81dbacked Yes65c154.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.073066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc88c…f67dbacked Yes65c153.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f6…4892backed Yes66c152.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.526645.5%30 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.893265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No40c120.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.341,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No42c112.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.77948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3812538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2510251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508664%55 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x468d…cf23backed Yes45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fca…cfc3backed Yes51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36fd…8982backed No31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ff…9aaabacked Yes64c93.75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.753253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked No55c89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.955644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e3…d1ffbacked Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.131650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.139067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b1…4f69backed No33c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f14…c845backed Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.422138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No35c68.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1362452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90b5…4e3dbacked No39c67.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.332161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8766…0ef8backed Yes53c66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.021464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+43%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes46c65.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.642245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…6a00backed Yes64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d1c…afe2backed Yes64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e72…c55fbacked No38c61.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No58c57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.069742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x252f…4f62backed No37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d4b…eedfbacked Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201275%9 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37fa…1136backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1910454.8%57 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca5…3af6backed Yes50c47.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.651080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+74.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea51…83a0backed Yes59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.371968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0314…5781backed No39c40.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6c…2bf7backed No39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes78c37.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2633938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes61c36.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.37332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa506…f93bbacked Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907b…3101backed Yes70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7911751.3%60 W · 57 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0079…b852backed Yes62c32.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.453070%21 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes63c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.843860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f57…770ebacked Yes63c31.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5142…ee20backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.31450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d7…db9abacked Yes63c25.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Yes64c20.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3118353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4861…4fcabacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb71…434dbacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.65261.5%32 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.222562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee45…e055backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.24959.2%29 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9856…7014backed Yes62c19.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079a…b899backed Yes65c18.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.465100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4415…b335backed Yes59c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a4a…0561backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2059…e3fdbacked Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+35.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1f…4c94backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcab3…ad72backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf390…9a7fbacked Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.