Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a51393006586bbe1f1bb79cfae82667c6c7b4e25e00a0df4788b15563c5750e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 820.14$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 777.75$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.95 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 538.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.64 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 262.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 258$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 242.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 204.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 30c | 134.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 112.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 84.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 77.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 72.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 28c | 51.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 28c | 51.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 49.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 56c | 40.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 37c | 39.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 29c | 34.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 38c | 29.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 26.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 25.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 66c | 19.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 67c | 18.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 17.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked Yes | 74c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 15.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked Yes | 74c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.