Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a582c37338e42f5ea7efe2111d4be511cc773f9fda727d81a2ec9d1ee8f0bdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked No | 47c | 1,273$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.11 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 68c | 512.75$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 56c | 477.71$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.26 | 151 | 53.6%81 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 35c | 418.2$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 342 | 22.2%76 W · 266 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 279.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 49c | 256$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.13 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 32c | 228.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…33f6backed No | 22c | 157.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 46c | 149.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 24c | 119.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 48c | 117$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 41c | 109.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 366 | 57.4%210 W · 156 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 95.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…0a05backed No | 25c | 80.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 43c | 79.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 14c | 77.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 53c | 68.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 58.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…d8b4backed Yes | 62c | 54.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb3…f51fbacked No | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 57c | 44.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 47c | 37.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 48c | 33.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 46c | 32.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 53c | 29.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 53c | 27.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…7850backed Yes | 59c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ac…f43cbacked Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 78c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.