Macro Indicators · resolved market
Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a66d5c411a072825a22f42fb6987746d1ab711db3644568f77d8628402ef7cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 5,908$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 2,625$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.71 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187a…2798backed Yes | 1c | 2,103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…c71fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,252$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 8c | 661.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…e3f6backed Yes | 8c | 587.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 579.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 573.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 9c | 446.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked Yes | 9c | 418.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daf…41a3backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…a4dfbacked Yes | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…d7f5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ff…d2f4backed Yes | 15c | 124.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…ca9bbacked Yes | 47c | 81.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…31e3backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7265…e943backed No | 53c | 44.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…48e6backed Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.