Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a8895aa72411d720d7bb862da041462f4fb190fc5b40e334652cf72a2abaf29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,468 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 36c | 1,542$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.74 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 931.82$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.09 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…3248backed No | 73c | 497$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed No | 11c | 466.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 30c | 325.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 19c | 301.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 259.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed Yes | 68c | 229.52$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x046d…c57cbacked Yes | 27c | 184$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 49c | 141.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 13c | 122.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +244.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…1790backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc93…940dbacked Yes | 27c | 107$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…c98cbacked Yes | 27c | 96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 19c | 68.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 32c | 49.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…15e0backed Yes | 74c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 9?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $295 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.