Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x528521bcbace71d9c4e13fbbc6d432e209032363adce909b35228989a498f131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,012 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,662$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.02 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 38c | 1,600$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 37c | 1,445$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.05 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed No | 64c | 1,064$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,010$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa7…7477backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 999.97$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.98 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 60c | 961.95$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.17 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 61c | 862.31$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.98 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881f…ea6ebacked No | 60c | 700$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 39c | 655.95$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Yes | 38c | 522.91$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 19c | 319.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.98 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…10afbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 27c | 281.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe19d…e4b0backed No | 61c | 270$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 76c | 249.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked Yes | 11c | 240.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a949backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc044…8823backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +589.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 60c | 162$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…3960backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…9694backed No | 60c | 160.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed No | 60c | 138$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 46c | 108.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…5abdbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…34b8backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa28d…17e9backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7ae9backed No | 61c | 90.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes | 39c | 85.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…16ccbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked No | 63c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…f0a5backed Yes | 45c | 62.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…85cabacked No | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…b6cbbacked No | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c5…7c9fbacked No | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Yes | 39c | 49.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0053…315dbacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 40c | 40.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…9954backed Yes | 40c | 35.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…611abacked No | 61c | 33.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…d60fbacked Yes | 39c | 32.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked No | 56c | 28.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 72c | 25.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…15e0backed No | 65c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe984…7f6fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 18.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…e2a6backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…17f5backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 9?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $295 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.