Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $295 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c8499ab7be3666e3551a4d228a3f16f9d5a9f68e8a3f4315feb2a1687306c3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,629 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 77c | 1,296$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.49 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 921.35$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.87 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked No | 27c | 636.85$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 38c | 412.71$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 31c | 411.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.64 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 61c | 334$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 73c | 316.64$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 22c | 271$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.38 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 9c | 208.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…4280backed Yes | 73c | 200.56$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 24c | 180.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 74c | 175.73$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked No | 26c | 169.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 73c | 109.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…d60fbacked Yes | 74c | 99.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…7a69backed Yes | 53c | 94.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 27c | 83.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed Yes | 27c | 45.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 74c | 42.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 32c | 35.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…8d8dbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed Yes | 75c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…d0eabacked Yes | 76c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 74c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 66c | 16.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…c9edbacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $295 on March 9?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.