MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7add5054565fe3b43429bf2435d5c7158e3560d6cafcc14b9074dffd2db36e6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.05 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 56c | 1,628$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 1,500$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.6 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 1,345$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 32c | 532.19$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 418.33$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 412.55$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.01 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Over | 48c | 408.33$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 55c | 318.29$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 56c | 177.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Over | 38c | 128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…74d2backed Over | 38c | 128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…6963backed Under | 43c | 114.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 63c | 111.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 47c | 105.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Under | 55c | 102.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 46c | 95.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 56c | 77.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 48c | 53.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 50.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Under | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 32.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 30.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 55c | 28.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 56c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 66c | 16.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit TigersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.