MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26e8985460fc677004c91e0015d7e24d0bc718c0729ac984af4e4db969f78f9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 44,501$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,501.13 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 34,158$19,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,213.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 51c | 10,438$5,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,311.63 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 3,318$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.84 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 3,248$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.42 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.99 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 2,503$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.82 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Detroit Tigers | 19c | 370$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 299.78$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.34 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 137.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 22c | 137.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 127.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Detroit Tigers | 31c | 118$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 109.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 31c | 97.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…5ccabacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 77.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 70.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 63.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 57.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 47.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 39.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 36.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 36.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Detroit Tigers | 54c | 33.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Detroit Tigers | 31c | 33.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 31.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 24.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 23.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit TigersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.