Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7adeb5e80a8b9fd26e579627c9acf5c82b3eb7e23a147000499bb37d63b149d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 9,212$6,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,317.81 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked L1ga Team | 27c | 3,485$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.34 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked L1ga Team | 16c | 2,777$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.62 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed L1ga Team | 25c | 2,708$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.07 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed L1ga Team | 29c | 2,365$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.94 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 2,187$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.38 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…72e8backed L1ga Team | 15c | 1,899$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed L1ga Team | 27c | 1,792$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.65 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed L1ga Team | 25c | 1,603$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.82 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 1,463$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.73 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 1,330$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.87 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 1,315$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.63 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed L1ga Team | 4c | 1,154$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 1,141$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 1,092$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.14 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked L1ga Team | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed L1ga Team | 32c | 886.38$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.44 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team | 18c | 846.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked L1ga Team | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 758.33$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 742.81$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.47 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked L1ga Team | 29c | 717.93$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.29 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed L1ga Team | 24c | 714.07$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.15 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked L1ga Team | 25c | 700.27$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed L1ga Team | 28c | 683.43$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…e456backed L1ga Team | 34c | 564.94$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 23c | 542.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed L1ga Team | 28c | 512.57$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed L1ga Team | 28c | 503.76$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed L1ga Team | 19c | 500.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 399.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked L1ga Team | 7c | 399.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed L1ga Team | 28c | 337.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 328.76$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team | 23c | 294.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…c1bbbacked L1ga Team | 30c | 289.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…e2e6backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 288.68$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…98c3backed L1ga Team | 29c | 275$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 274.66$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked L1ga Team | 24c | 258.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked L1ga Team | 31c | 244.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 155 | 46.5%72 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed L1ga Team | 27c | 214.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked L1ga Team | 25c | 212.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed L1ga Team | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked L1ga Team | 25c | 195.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed L1ga Team | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed L1ga Team | 15c | 144.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc58…1e76backed L1ga Team | 23c | 120.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…fa0ebacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked L1ga Team | 23c | 116$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…69fabacked L1ga Team | 31c | 107.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked L1ga Team | 20c | 104.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…1339backed L1ga Team | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 288 | 46.5%134 W · 154 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed L1ga Team | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 99.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…08fbbacked L1ga Team | 21c | 83.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed L1ga Team | 24c | 69.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked L1ga Team | 18c | 69.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed L1ga Team | 22c | 69.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 65.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c7…620cbacked L1ga Team | 22c | 64.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 63.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked L1ga Team | 25c | 57.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team | 24c | 57.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked L1ga Team | 36c | 56.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed L1ga Team | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 31.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 381 | 67.2%256 W · 125 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 24.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x569a…843cbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 16.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs L1ga Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)L1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.