TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
L1ga Teamof Natus Vincere, L1ga Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,888 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere57c15,944$9,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,044.6254556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed L1ga Team57c6,590$3,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,860.5651751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere47c6,138$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.9153451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x668d…e471backed L1ga Team61c4,401$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked L1ga Team49c4,040$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.32,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked L1ga Team41c3,418$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.9567043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Natus Vincere62c3,377$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.117955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Natus Vincere36c3,333$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.9834468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked L1ga Team45c3,173$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.191,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed L1ga Team61c3,017$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.0147046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed L1ga Team29c2,437$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.531020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed L1ga Team43c2,308$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.261,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Natus Vincere74c2,000$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.998458.3%49 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked L1ga Team39c1,546$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.5736759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team32c1,439$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.331,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked L1ga Team41c1,400$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.497639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked L1ga Team53c1,258$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.241,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team51c1,173$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.121,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team53c1,161$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.792,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Natus Vincere78c1,064$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.7556955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed Natus Vincere78c986.8$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.79749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked L1ga Team28c956.62$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.6418156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Natus Vincere20c730.35$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.933541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Natus Vincere20c691.85$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0430356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere76c648.42$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.835461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Natus Vincere77c643.31$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.1386659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked L1ga Team24c643.22$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.8569835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed L1ga Team24c551.03$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.5297142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed L1ga Team25c500.7$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.6214832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Natus Vincere70c424.02$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.911,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Natus Vincere28c410$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.581,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed L1ga Team23c406.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.5847650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed L1ga Team25c320.69$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.5238855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7db…4fa3backed L1ga Team44c317.65$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.753151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked L1ga Team30c309.86$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.941,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked L1ga Team25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22556243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked L1ga Team53c292.27$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7136654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Natus Vincere41c271.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5232652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6df…1cf4backed L1ga Team25c267.4$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.551346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed L1ga Team68c245.2$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4638653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Natus Vincere12c240.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8433645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked Natus Vincere20c222.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.169443.6%41 W · 53 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Natus Vincere46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.26936.2%25 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed L1ga Team52c217.86$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1546049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Natus Vincere29c217.36$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0252649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Natus Vincere74c216.07$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.893243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed L1ga Team60c205.57$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8241655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Natus Vincere50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5051…82a6backed L1ga Team25c198.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8920452.5%107 W · 97 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Natus Vincere57c196.82$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1919552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Natus Vincere13c193.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7924137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team44c167.4$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.642,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed L1ga Team64c165.74$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1948352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked L1ga Team25c158.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3912740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a0c…3ccebacked Natus Vincere39c143.77$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.078132.1%26 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed L1ga Team34c141.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5948054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked L1ga Team49c139$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8918745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Natus Vincere76c129.65$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5621650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Natus Vincere75c111.11$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8555457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked Natus Vincere48c100.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.454247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed L1ga Team52c99.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4825150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Natus Vincere45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4579343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed L1ga Team25c95.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6386451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed L1ga Team57c94.54$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0436138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere74c94.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7356852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2131…1e8bbacked Natus Vincere46c88.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.154247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed L1ga Team22c86.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7261745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02c0…d718backed Natus Vincere48c82.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.842138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ea…538dbacked L1ga Team80c78.14$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.637741.6%32 W · 45 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed L1ga Team37c78.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1534045.9%156 W · 184 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed L1ga Team54c70.56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.291,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa97…69fabacked L1ga Team55c68.95$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.241127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Natus Vincere45c67.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2646240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed L1ga Team71c66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.142657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd12…9debbacked Natus Vincere75c65.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.752352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked L1ga Team30c63.87$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7129350.2%147 W · 146 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Natus Vincere38c62.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.583138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Natus Vincere77c62.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9750855.5%282 W · 226 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Natus Vincere79c62.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8325457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Natus Vincere75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4558152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca7…3411backed Natus Vincere78c59.57$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.177068.6%48 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed Natus Vincere78c58.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.466162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x786c…bdd5backed Natus Vincere48c57.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.681625%4 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-45.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere32c57.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.571,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked L1ga Team58c57.16$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2720954.5%114 W · 95 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed L1ga Team62c52.54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2139559%233 W · 162 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf0…4046backed L1ga Team76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Natus Vincere67c43.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4110738.3%41 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed L1ga Team61c43.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1246150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed L1ga Team71c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1865337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked L1ga Team66c40.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5869033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed L1ga Team71c38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0224527.3%67 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked L1ga Team45c36.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.871,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed L1ga Team71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.736044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0148…b61cbacked Natus Vincere47c28.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed L1ga Team58c28.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.98852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…0c28backed Natus Vincere41c27.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.153537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Natus Vincere77c26.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.726055%33 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked Natus Vincere75c24.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.477159.2%42 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Natus Vincere73c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.585538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.