Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0a24c601f2a6531af60fe12429d76d15bd5aff9456a8910939663de77082dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 24c | 253.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.73 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 158.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked Yes | 33c | 154.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 53c | 154.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 145$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 127.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 112$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 105.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 32c | 103.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 78.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 77.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 75c | 66.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 32c | 65.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 30c | 62.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 67c | 61.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 68c | 54.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 31c | 50.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 48.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 67c | 44.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 42.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…f80ebacked Yes | 34c | 42.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 35.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 68c | 30.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 65c | 30.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 24.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 64c | 22.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 68c | 22.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 68c | 21.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1d…8e23backed No | 69c | 21.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 18.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 60c | 18.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 16.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 66c | 15.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.