Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e4708d9b929306789f0d0db089ce636ac0a484ffc7f6defc45935188bd6186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 1,008$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.76 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 80c | 540.62$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 430.42$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 255$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 234.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 151.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed No | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 43c | 149.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 145.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 57c | 135.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 62c | 103.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 69c | 86.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 41c | 81.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 52c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 41c | 74.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 73.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 57c | 68.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 46c | 64.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 63c | 63.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 59.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 43c | 57.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 56c | 56.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Yes | 71c | 56.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 74c | 50.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5928backed No | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 41c | 48.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 49c | 47.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 44c | 45.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 28c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 66c | 39.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1221…16d9backed No | 43c | 37.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 69c | 34.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 43c | 34.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 39c | 30.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 60c | 28.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 44c | 27.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 58c | 24.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 23.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…9ac6backed Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…f80ebacked Yes | 49c | 21.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 70c | 20.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.