Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b11c26ba29f5010276368c69c0ce22cc3c7b53fcb45e52bf4c7fd7e74b5a68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 1,319$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.27 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 393.25$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 363.78$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 277.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 8c | 240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 228.71$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 207.69$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.69 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 188.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 126.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 118.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 40c | 96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 32c | 75.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 42c | 67.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 69c | 58.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 37c | 53.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 29c | 41.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 40.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 38.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…eb94backed Yes | 37c | 37.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 36.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 66c | 35.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…1d79backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 34.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 62c | 30.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…622dbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 42c | 27.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 29?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 29?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 29?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 29?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.