NHL · resolved market
Will the Dallas Stars win the Central Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b3d7865d3abd24d63e6cb7072030319e18a557f4fa22647f4bd29c62a6b1241
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 2,040$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…4d07backed Yes | 1c | 1,645$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,175$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,024$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 340 | 32.4%110 W · 230 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…1a90backed Yes | 50c | 999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…7265backed No | 50c | 999$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 938$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Yes | 6c | 878.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 3c | 836$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 201 | 37.8%76 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 782.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3132…a6b8backed No | 50c | 666$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x120b…6561backed No | 50c | 666$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd000…3fb9backed No | 50c | 666$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…070fbacked Yes | 50c | 666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…897fbacked Yes | 50c | 666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a77…0861backed No | 50c | 666$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa673…27c8backed Yes | 50c | 666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…83dabacked Yes | 50c | 666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 10c | 585.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Yes | 22c | 470.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 177 | 49.2%87 W · 90 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 13c | 397.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 395.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 373$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…1e51backed Yes | 7c | 342.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 9c | 334$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe764…0479backed No | 50c | 333$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa482…9778backed Yes | 50c | 333$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 314$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 7c | 302$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…91eebacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…c4edbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 213.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Yes | 20c | 200.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…96cfbacked Yes | 10c | 186.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 17c | 142.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed Yes | 17c | 115.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 111.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dallas Stars win the Central Division?this page
- Will the Arizona Coyotes win the Central Division?No won
- Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the Central Division?No won
- Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division?Yes won
- Will the Minnesota Wild win the Central Division?No won
- Will the Nashville Predators win the Central Division?No won
- Will the St. Louis Blues win the Central Division?No won
- Will the Winnipeg Jets win the Central Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.