TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, FOKUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,714
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,714 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddc3…029cbacked Aurora Gaming59c2,234$1,308 inWon+$925.9492456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FOKUS41c1,234$506 inLost-$505.9464748.4%313 W · 334 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FOKUS42c1,140$478 inLost-$477.541,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c8…a814backed Aurora Gaming60c953.04$572 inWon+$380.919951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked FOKUS39c548.05$212 inLost-$212.0547347.1%223 W · 250 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed FOKUS41c461.24$189 inLost-$189.1112950.4%65 W · 64 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe601…84ecbacked Aurora Gaming53c349.97$185 inWon+$164.4949245.9%226 W · 266 L-1.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FOKUS47c246.59$116 inLost-$115.845,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed FOKUS47c81.34$38 inLost-$38.2319244.3%85 W · 107 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e5…5273backed Aurora Gaming64c56.25$36 inWon+$20.25366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…ab74backed Aurora Gaming59c42.37$25 inWon+$17.3714065.7%92 W · 48 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Aurora Gaming59c40.34$24 inWon+$16.542,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1c…8c49backed Aurora Gaming59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.92937.9%11 W · 18 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-27.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FOKUS45c25.84$12 inLost-$11.637,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed FOKUS42c24.07$10 inLost-$10.1111540.9%47 W · 68 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Aurora Gaming59c23.73$14 inWon+$9.7350447.2%238 W · 266 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.