CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc884f9c26597dbf436358cb1883e6fbb4dff0fb4aebb6787a9b9ac9a5ebd6119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Over | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 158 | 38%60 W · 98 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 63c | 555.56$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 37c | 529.73$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.73 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Under | 63c | 472.51$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.68 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Over | 37c | 428.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.25 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 58c | 371.51$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.64 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 36c | 232.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.54 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked Over | 37c | 216.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…2285backed Over | 51c | 191.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Under | 59c | 182$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 37c | 163.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 63c | 158.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 63c | 149.75$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 64c | 136.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…238bbacked Over | 38c | 120.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 63c | 111.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed Under | 63c | 111.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…fc1abacked Over | 49c | 105.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 42c | 100.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 98.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Under | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda94…f072backed Over | 35c | 86.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 64c | 79.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 489 | 48.9%239 W · 250 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…95fabacked Under | 63c | 71.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 61c | 67.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 52c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 63c | 57.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 200 | 45%90 W · 110 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 57c | 56.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Under | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…a9c7backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 29c | 51.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 41.6%146 W · 205 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…af07backed Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Under | 53c | 38.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,054 | 49%516 W · 538 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 62c | 33.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Under | 63c | 30.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 587 | 45%264 W · 323 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 380 | 32.1%122 W · 258 L | -18.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 48c | 27.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 686 | 59.5%408 W · 278 L | +65.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f3…b3eebacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FOKUS (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierFOKUS won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FOKUS - Map 1 WinnerFOKUS won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FOKUS - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)FOKUS won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)Aurora Gaming won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs FOKUS (+6.5)FOKUS won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)FOKUS won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5)FOKUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.