CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91505048669f6d420f80a7f3748bea4c2f6498865163451bfef1f1ebc4db760a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 45c | 750$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6421…045dbacked Under | 55c | 750$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked Under | 55c | 501$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.45 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Over | 45c | 501$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.45 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Under | 53c | 421$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.87 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c8…a814backed Over | 48c | 206.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…fc1abacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…b387backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Under | 51c | 75.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 374 | 53.2%199 W · 175 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 53c | 35.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…9ec2backed Over | 49c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FOKUS (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierFOKUS won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FOKUS - Map 1 WinnerFOKUS won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FOKUS - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)FOKUS won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)Aurora Gaming won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs FOKUS (+6.5)FOKUS won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)FOKUS won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5)FOKUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.