Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b590a9f20bdbf632fc279ca923b601b318b71de63b5fae3854068836cab9de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 364.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 330.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 33c | 306.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 296.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 291.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 259.82$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 258.4$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…c785backed No | 66c | 151.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 150.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 40c | 147.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 145.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 144.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 29c | 128.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 73c | 111.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 24c | 99.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 97.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 95.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 62c | 93.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 91.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 39c | 89.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 86.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 19c | 85.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 80.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 80.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 44c | 71.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 69.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 68.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 67.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 24c | 65.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 79c | 64.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 63c | 62.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 63c | 61.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 59.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 55.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 54.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed No | 68c | 50.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…7de1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 45.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 42.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 30c | 38.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 31c | 36.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 33c | 36.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 29c | 35.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 34c | 33.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 45c | 32.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 68c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629a…7357backed No | 74c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 79c | 15.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.