Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c8e9af7242b38964ecf7ed9f9ac13684b41702c10ef4085993fe02da51afd4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 35c | 288.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 48c | 232.91$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 230.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 32c | 217.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 202.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 179.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 8c | 174.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 67c | 174.48$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 14c | 158.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 68c | 146.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 68c | 142.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 50c | 140.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 48c | 131.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 14c | 129.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 125.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 122$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 121$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 77c | 117.68$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 75c | 102.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 99.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 52c | 98.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 96.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 96.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 95.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 16c | 69.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 64.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 61c | 59.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 58c | 59.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 56c | 55.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 54.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 46c | 54.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 50c | 52.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 31c | 50.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 50.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 62c | 49.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 23c | 46.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 70c | 44.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed No | 50c | 41.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 40.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 40.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 78c | 38.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 36.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 34.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 39c | 34.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 34.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 51c | 33.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 33.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 47c | 31.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 48c | 30.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 50c | 28.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa41…41ffbacked Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 50c | 23.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 22.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 66c | 21.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 21.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 72c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 62c | 16.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.