TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,170 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c1,372$601 inLost-$600.7512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over52c1,125$585 inWon+$539.844,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over72c287$206 inWon+$81.258,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Over52c231$120 inWon+$110.884438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under48c231$111 inLost-$110.8891252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over80c53.4$43 inWon+$10.754,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Under48c41.66$20 inLost-$2044345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6123…8b33backed Over61c41.07$25 inWon+$16.0726853.7%144 W · 124 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under38c39.65$15 inLost-$15.041,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Under39c36.07$14 inLost-$14.0722638.5%87 W · 139 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over75c31.6$24 inWon+$7.91,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over64c20.31$13 inWon+$7.3147646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Over72c20$14 inWon+$5.5511255.4%62 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.