MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b95e7ff85cab988f3491d619aa827d16412aef9b337c560208c61d159b2d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 12,708$5,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,202.32 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 5,462$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 3,351$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.07 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 2,310$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.68 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 2,282$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.19 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 1,308$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 1,005$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.84 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 660.82$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 442$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.94 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 405.3$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.02 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 396.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 395.5$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.44 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 365.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.55 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 232.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 206.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 148.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 102.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 86.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 86.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 77.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 77.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 74.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 69.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 62.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 61.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 49.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 46.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…065abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 42.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 42.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 39.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 37.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 27.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 21.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 21.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 21.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 19.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 17.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…d962backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.