TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,739 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2805…76edbacked Arizona Diamondbacks65c2,063$1,333 inWon+$730.1421242%89 W · 123 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins43c1,821$780 inLost-$780.358,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins35c993.69$352 inLost-$351.944,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks53c835.04$444 inWon+$390.9212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins51c251$128 inLost-$127.936,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks58c106.73$61 inWon+$45.288,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Minnesota Twins22c90.09$20 inLost-$19.5725034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks54c63.12$34 inWon+$29.345,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Arizona Diamondbacks78c45$35 inWon+$9.91,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Arizona Diamondbacks79c25$20 inWon+$5.251,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae02…7ed0backed Arizona Diamondbacks55c18.21$10 inWon+$8.212661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+30.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x92ef…c693backed Minnesota Twins67c17.59$12 inLost-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks78c15$12 inWon+$3.319257.8%111 W · 81 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.