MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1c5db53eb80b93b574f31a56a2f18ee66b506b6754d1b354eccc85481d6bb00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 7,239$3,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,781.59 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 5,925$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,091.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 3,156$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 49c | 2,047$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.97 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 18c | 1,022$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 828$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.5 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 432.77$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 52c | 216.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 200.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 66c | 161.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 35c | 149.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 59c | 138.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 38c | 133.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 119.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 46c | 88.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 38c | 78.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 65.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 30c | 63.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 55c | 62.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 58c | 62.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 53c | 60.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 68c | 60.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 58c | 55.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Under | 52c | 50.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 46.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 54c | 43.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 52c | 37.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 51c | 23.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 62c | 18.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 64c | 18.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.