MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a34b4df7a17d3888451d5bee12573ec6c332e87843573c041303fde108405d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 52c | 15,000$7,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,201.05 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 9,177$4,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,405.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 48c | 2,663$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.61 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 2,547$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 60c | 1,729$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.71 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 40c | 1,663$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 52c | 674$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.52 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Under | 48c | 589.13$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.78 | 285 | 53.3%152 W · 133 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 62c | 275.13$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 242.4$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 34c | 228.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 48c | 208.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.19 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 52c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 166.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 32c | 141.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 115.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 63c | 96.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 54c | 93.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 53c | 91.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143a…2053backed Under | 48c | 82.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 70.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 46c | 62.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 43c | 61.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 34c | 48.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 40.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 49c | 40.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 50c | 36.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 52c | 28.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 60c | 26.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.