Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b75fcc0c8cfba62603ca1eddcecc4d08917f2ad8948bd4b233d9cc0e3569b3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 1,402$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 5c | 294.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 283.2$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 271.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 236.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 40c | 161.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 147.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 126.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 33c | 126.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 65c | 120.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 118.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 72c | 106.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 100.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 100.03$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 15c | 98.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 97.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 36c | 95.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 33c | 87.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 35c | 86.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…99dabacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 78.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 22c | 76.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 73.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 64.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 64.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 56.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 53.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 53.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 32c | 51.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 80c | 49.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed No | 67c | 48.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 46.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 45.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 44.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 37.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 33c | 37.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…4cacbacked No | 69c | 33.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…362bbacked No | 71c | 32.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 69c | 32.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 44c | 27.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 75c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 65c | 21.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.