Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a1051b0d15d4195e7776c749569265c5b8cf0a2d0ea6d536bd9f320d2ec267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 769.14$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 490.01$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 28c | 252.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.68 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 243.43$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.47 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 30c | 178.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 172.01$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 144.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 140.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 136.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 117.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 116.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 70c | 114.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 113.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 113$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 110.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 97.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 96.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 67c | 91.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 89.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 47c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 68c | 71.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 59c | 66.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 65c | 64.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 39c | 64.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 63c | 60.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 58.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 53.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 51.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 53c | 51.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 45c | 51.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 56c | 50.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 50.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 30c | 48.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 30c | 47.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 41c | 47.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 45.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 43.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 43.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 62c | 39.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 39.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 39.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 38.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 29c | 35.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 41c | 35.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 35.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 49c | 34.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 46c | 32.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 30.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 36c | 28.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 44c | 27.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 64c | 20.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…4cacbacked No | 63c | 18.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…70acbacked No | 75c | 18.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 66c | 18.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…492dbacked Yes | 70c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.