NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ba8722778c9a0c99acf09493d1b022dff90391aa8f2406b3c73612630e9ffa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Over | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 50c | 4,750$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 52c | 4,429$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,618$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 48c | 1,927$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.54 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 1,630$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.9 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 52c | 1,480$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.4 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 1,100$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 50c | 978$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 52c | 577$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.04 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Under | 50c | 492$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 489$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.23 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 53c | 415$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.91 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Under | 53c | 410.39$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…232fbacked Over | 48c | 198$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…a9aebacked Over | 50c | 196$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…3975backed Under | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…2f56backed Under | 52c | 188$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Under | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…47aabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…c5f3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 239.5this page
- Hornets vs. BucksBucks won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.