NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72ca34fb287cf5a27354bb3c2cd9dd160931d12d4f89b2795ab0dd88e41608b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 3,257$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…9dcabacked Under | 54c | 2,000$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c41…02e2backed Over | 46c | 2,000$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Under | 56c | 1,098$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.21 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Under | 52c | 307$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 294.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.29 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 290.77$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.15 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…a766backed Under | 55c | 179$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Over | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Under | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 43c | 122.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Under | 55c | 73.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…9ff3backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Under | 53c | 52.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…d6c1backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…6f16backed Under | 53c | 37.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…67e3backed Under | 53c | 18.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5this page
- Hornets vs. BucksBucks won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.