NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285b1a6b2856b2b47371acb8771a29fdb0fc03b1fbe67d2bfb426003a58b3123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Hornets | 51c | 16,399$8,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,363.39 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 49c | 11,389$5,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,808.29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…a8f1backed Hornets | 50c | 10,947$5,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,473.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…11b6backed Bucks | 50c | 10,680$5,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,340 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 50c | 8,125$4,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,070.28 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bucks | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,825.25 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Bucks | 50c | 7,325$3,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,662.93 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Bucks | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets | 52c | 5,344$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,778.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 50c | 4,400$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets | 51c | 3,921$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.71 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Bucks | 48c | 3,500$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Hornets | 48c | 2,137$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Bucks | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.99 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Hornets | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…02d1backed Hornets | 50c | 1,920$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…3fdebacked Bucks | 50c | 1,920$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucks | 50c | 1,582$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.08 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hornets | 49c | 1,485$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.01 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…f273backed Hornets | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Hornets | 51c | 1,142$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.2 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Bucks | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bucks | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.61 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hornets | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Bucks | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 49c | 638.27$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.25 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed Bucks | 49c | 599.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Bucks | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Hornets | 51c | 403.8$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 49c | 291$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 50c | 289.28$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Bucks | 52c | 226.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…bd81backed Bucks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Bucks | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Bucks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Bucks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Bucks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Hornets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…447abacked Bucks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Bucks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Hornets | 53c | 189.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 51c | 164$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…4eabbacked Bucks | 50c | 164$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7c6ebacked Bucks | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Bucks | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…3521backed Bucks | 50c | 146$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…7dcabacked Bucks | 50c | 142$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…02d3backed Bucks | 50c | 142$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…225cbacked Bucks | 50c | 132$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Hornets | 52c | 130.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511e…6df7backed Bucks | 50c | 128$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…1b53backed Bucks | 50c | 122$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 49c | 118.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800c…b543backed Bucks | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Bucks | 49c | 117.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Bucks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…8d07backed Bucks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hornets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Bucks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Hornets | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Bucks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Hornets | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Hornets | 51c | 68.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Hornets | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Bucks | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Bucks | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Bucks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Bucks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…3b03backed Hornets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Bucks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c28…bc2cbacked Bucks | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Hornets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…ce94backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Hornets | 75c | 18.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)this page
- Hornets vs. BucksBucks won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.